2011.06.02 07:45 C_IsForCookie Boca Raton, FL: A City for All Seasons
2016.07.15 05:32 bit_novosti Ethereum Classic
2016.07.24 13:06 warproxxx Classic Ether Market & Trading Discussion
2023.03.21 22:00 ReAnonymousBusiness New Nintendo Switch Tinfoil Shop TeaShop.moe
2023.03.21 21:53 Grello Are my migraines actually cluster headaches?
2023.03.21 21:52 TheNumberOfGeese Eco mode vs normal
2023.03.21 21:50 DaddyDersch Pre- FOMC day… let the show begin! 3-21-23 SPY/ ES Futures, VIX, DXY and 10YR Yield Daily Market Analysis
![]() | Well the question of the day which we will get an answer to in 22 hours is… are we going to see 410/420 with a dovish JPOW or is JPOW about to send the markets crashing back to 370/380? submitted by DaddyDersch to StockMarket [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/e7byzo2dn5pa1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=d13487f5e6ad5da5e5ceca19a6ed8d8b8a6b8324 Not very surprising but we are expected to see a 25bps hike with an 86.4% chance priced in… Now do I really think the bps matters? Honestly I do not… But what does matter is the dot plot and how JPOW fields questions from the press about the financial system and bank runs. I even before the bank runs believed we were going to see a the dot plot show longer and more hikes than expected. And now with the bonds and market essentially pricing in 100bps of cuts by the end of the year I think they are going to get a big surprise… Not only that but JPOW is going to have to directly field questions about the banks and the true issues… Now of course jpow can just say “that’s not my place to speak on this” and just defer… however, markets gonna be listening to every single word he says. https://preview.redd.it/dsq07jjdn5pa1.png?width=369&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc58540a68e975e3393f4533307a191a8f378e50 Taking a look at the last 9 FOMCs (last year of data) we have an average of a 0.6% +/- open… which means SPY could open somewhere near 396.46 or 401.25. Interestingly enough from January to September every FOMC had a green open and pretty big green openings… the last three FOMCs have all been red openings (Granted smaller than previous green openings). Today we front ran FOMC in my opinion… I think we are going to give a lot of this back tomorrow personally. With an average close of +/- 1.72% our downside target would be around 392 or 405.7. SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/9whnjd0en5pa1.png?width=869&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f1bb7f3e01efa21d17d91be499c9ef5782b019c Right now we still remain between the demand (support) 385.87 and supply (resistance) at 405.17. We are still on the path to establish a new supply (resistance). We actually if we would have closed under 396 would have made a new supply today. At this point price action is fairly bullish and my target for now remains at 405.17. Which if you remember with the expected FOMC move upside of 405.7 that could actually hit tomorrow. However, IF we get a bearish FOMC tomorrow and close a red day then we will establish this 398.9 area as a new supply (resistance) and that would give us once again a downside target of 385.87. There is a lot riding on tomorrow and very well could determine the next month of movement. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/ej00f2hen5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2dd7731e1a780b372a4bab70ed21d0f7277418e5 There actually is quite a bit to talk about here on the daily chart price action wise… and most of it is very bullish. What we did (I changed colors some from last night) is broke out of the orange bear channel. With that breakout we now will target the red resistance from 2/14 and 3/6 tops which tomorrow will sit at 400.5. After that we have the final resistance of this down trend (daily wise) at 405.3 for tomorrow. That 405 area continues to come up and remains a pivotal point. IF we were to break out tomorrow and close over 405 then we absolutely could see an impressive run back to the 414-417 area. I do not think this rally would last personally… I would actually find anything over 410 to be a potential short opportunity… but that is absolutely an upside target. However, if the bears fight back tomorrow and jpow drops the hawk hammer on the markets then our support level for tomorrow is at 394.3. IF we were to lose that level then we would actually form a really nice abandoned baby pattern (actually any gap down and red a would do this too). This would be a great opportunity for a short back to 390.1 minimally. One interesting thing to note is that SPY hard rejected and closed under 399 today which is the daily 200ema and if you look back to January was a major pivot area. This is the bears last defense in my opinion. If bulls close over 399 tomorrow then my upside target remains 405.2. IF bears close under 396.1 tomorrow then my downside target remains 390.1. SPY LEVELS- Supply: 405.17 Demand: 385.87 Support- 397.2 -> 396.2 -> 393.7 -> 390.8 Resistance- 399 -> 401.6 -> 404.5 -> 405.2 FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/8qewew4fn5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c43070eb0b19dde302b2ec6d6b3da5632cb8c45e After futures established that soft support yesterday at 3945 we as expected continue our push and have found ourselves between supply at 3995 and 4054. 3995 supply now becomes support and 4055 supply remains resistance. AS I mentioned one scenario was that we would break between these levels and establish a new supply (Resistance) between 3995 and 4055. That would in my opinion signal a retest of 3945 and possibly even 3895. If we were to put in a red day tomorrow we would see 4040 become a new supply (resistance). That would make first support target 3995 -> 3945 and eventually 3895. We would look for a short opportunity until a new demand (support) was established. However, until a new supply is established our upside target remains 4055 and then 4095. Both of which are 100% within range for a FOMC day tomorrow. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/aui2hxufn5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ccc657916d9d761123b40562094d5214c90f54a From a price action stand point here we had a pretty impressive breakout and broke through our red resistance line. With that break through it leaves our last down trend resistance line (on a daily time frame) at 4114. That would be about a 1.83% move from 4040. As you can see we have established a pretty extreme two day support line in orange. That support remains at 4064… Now essentially what that means is unless futes opens over 4064 for some wild reason then this two day impressive 3.7%/ 146 pt move on futures breaks its trend… However true support of this v bottom lies at the blue support line which will sit at key pivot point of 3920. Realistically bulls are going to be targeting 4095 tomorrow and their goal will be to close us over 4095 tomorrow. If that happens there is a pretty strong case to be made for a run to 4150-4160. However, IF the bear can defend 4095 and realistically if they can close under 3988 minimally tomorrow (--1.3%) but ideally under 3920 (-3%) then my target would remain 3830-3888. Tomorrow as I said from a technical stand point has a major impact on where we are going to be headed the next few weeks. However, one caveat that I would like to say is that FOMC days historically have a way of “getting it wrong.” What I mean by this is that the algos have a way of rallying mostly and then giving it all back the very next day. Futures levels- Supply: 3995 -> 4055 -> 4160 Demand- 4095 -> 3945 Support- 3988 -> 3960 -> 3945 Resistance- 4040 -> 4055 -> 4085 -> 4095 VIX https://preview.redd.it/6f8if7egn5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d3a0eb8e4dc281e44d13a03327c4ce46c287a2b Actually one thing that is pretty impressive and I didn’t realize until today is that out of the last 9 FOMCs 6 out of the last 9 have seen the VIX unwind (drop) the day before. Todays 11% drop on the VIX actually is the biggest drop pre-FOMC in the last year of FOMCs. https://preview.redd.it/wdygrsrgn5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=eedd5868e72eaa220d9eb368ff3b6258752f44f1 I mentioned this breakout triangle here and that if we were to lose that then we very well could see this as a hint to massive upside on SPY… as of right now the VIX is hinting to some pretty impressive upside to come on SPY. DXY https://preview.redd.it/9d0w4j6hn5pa1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d987e5349694126c91457fea99329508844c601 Now something that is actually interesting here is the Dollar and its trend. I mentioned yesterday that the break through of this breakout/down triangle actually signaled that we would see upside on SPY. And today we absolutely got that. Now again I don’t know if you can full TA the DXY… but then again people say you cant TA the VIX but here we are doing it well most days… BUT if we COULD TA the DXY then what I would say is that we just saw the bottom bounce of the dollar off previous support of 103. This would be a reversal doji candle and would signify we see a push up on the dollar tomorrow which in turn should bring SPY lower. The one caveat again here would be that FOMC can cause extremely unpredictable and crazy movements on the dollar and bonds. 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/3zugs6lhn5pa1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=99ca74bee39144a6f9beb1fc905394307448f66e Once again how well we can TA the 10YR is still to be determined… and the 10yr has not been moving as usual I would say lately… but the one thing I am seeing here is that we are reaching what would appear to be a bottom on the 10yr… the 10yr looks like it made a massive bounce off that 3.3% area yesterday and now is on a path back to the 3.7% to 3.9% area… IF that was the case then that SHOULD/ COULD bring SPY down with it… What I find most intriguing is that SPY has a daily abandoned baby reversal candle set up, the dollar has a morning start doji bullish reversal (potentially bearish for SPY) and the 10Yr appears to be vbottoming (potentially bearish for SPY) all at the same time… IF things play nicely this could be the ultimate signal of the temporary top on SPY and that we are indeed heading down to the 380s on SPY again. I would personally look for a red day tomorrow with a new supply (resistance) being established at 399 tomorrow on SPY and at 4040 on futures to full signal that the 380s/ 3800s is coming back around. Now of course this all 100% relies on FOMC and most importantly what JPOW has to say… DAILY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/pwn8lq2in5pa1.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=86fa54cd55d05bf625a298054325ffd19519231b Not a bad day of trading… ended up with a decent small green day here once again. We spent almost the whole day in a pretty tight $2.5 range. Which when you consider the fact that the 10 day average range is currently $6.77 that is a very tight range. We realistically didn’t even see a big breakout on SPY until power hour and even that breakout never broke a $4 range. Without the once again massive pre market move we would have been left with a very tight range and no movement. Lets see what fireworks FOMC brings tomorrow. I for one have zero plans to trade FOMC but I will have a bag of popcorn ready to go… |
2023.03.21 21:49 DaddyDersch Pre- FOMC day… let the show begin! 3-21-23 SPY/ ES Futures, VIX, DXY and 10YR Yield Daily Market Analysis
![]() | Well the question of the day which we will get an answer to in 22 hours is… are we going to see 410/420 with a dovish JPOW or is JPOW about to send the markets crashing back to 370/380? submitted by DaddyDersch to FuturesTrading [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/b4gjhbs5n5pa1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c782ffea07d065d7515b173c522334fd08dfb5a Not very surprising but we are expected to see a 25bps hike with an 86.4% chance priced in… Now do I really think the bps matters? Honestly I do not… But what does matter is the dot plot and how JPOW fields questions from the press about the financial system and bank runs. I even before the bank runs believed we were going to see a the dot plot show longer and more hikes than expected. And now with the bonds and market essentially pricing in 100bps of cuts by the end of the year I think they are going to get a big surprise… Not only that but JPOW is going to have to directly field questions about the banks and the true issues… Now of course jpow can just say “that’s not my place to speak on this” and just defer… however, markets gonna be listening to every single word he says. https://preview.redd.it/nb1ow396n5pa1.png?width=369&format=png&auto=webp&s=d479ca184bddef059a3bf7363e44a261169dd2e3 Taking a look at the last 9 FOMCs (last year of data) we have an average of a 0.6% +/- open… which means SPY could open somewhere near 396.46 or 401.25. Interestingly enough from January to September every FOMC had a green open and pretty big green openings… the last three FOMCs have all been red openings (Granted smaller than previous green openings). Today we front ran FOMC in my opinion… I think we are going to give a lot of this back tomorrow personally. With an average close of +/- 1.72% our downside target would be around 392 or 405.7. SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/l2v8nam6n5pa1.png?width=869&format=png&auto=webp&s=01a9588616dcdc9c561cba747bee638b52e240fe Right now we still remain between the demand (support) 385.87 and supply (resistance) at 405.17. We are still on the path to establish a new supply (resistance). We actually if we would have closed under 396 would have made a new supply today. At this point price action is fairly bullish and my target for now remains at 405.17. Which if you remember with the expected FOMC move upside of 405.7 that could actually hit tomorrow. However, IF we get a bearish FOMC tomorrow and close a red day then we will establish this 398.9 area as a new supply (resistance) and that would give us once again a downside target of 385.87. There is a lot riding on tomorrow and very well could determine the next month of movement. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/xk1z1i27n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b710817d57f8be395f341ccc3ede9c6b95162edd There actually is quite a bit to talk about here on the daily chart price action wise… and most of it is very bullish. What we did (I changed colors some from last night) is broke out of the orange bear channel. With that breakout we now will target the red resistance from 2/14 and 3/6 tops which tomorrow will sit at 400.5. After that we have the final resistance of this down trend (daily wise) at 405.3 for tomorrow. That 405 area continues to come up and remains a pivotal point. IF we were to break out tomorrow and close over 405 then we absolutely could see an impressive run back to the 414-417 area. I do not think this rally would last personally… I would actually find anything over 410 to be a potential short opportunity… but that is absolutely an upside target. However, if the bears fight back tomorrow and jpow drops the hawk hammer on the markets then our support level for tomorrow is at 394.3. IF we were to lose that level then we would actually form a really nice abandoned baby pattern (actually any gap down and red a would do this too). This would be a great opportunity for a short back to 390.1 minimally. One interesting thing to note is that SPY hard rejected and closed under 399 today which is the daily 200ema and if you look back to January was a major pivot area. This is the bears last defense in my opinion. If bulls close over 399 tomorrow then my upside target remains 405.2. IF bears close under 396.1 tomorrow then my downside target remains 390.1. SPY LEVELS- Supply: 405.17 Demand: 385.87 Support- 397.2 -> 396.2 -> 393.7 -> 390.8 Resistance- 399 -> 401.6 -> 404.5 -> 405.2 FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/nmjsiij7n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=469738d18026c23c14d7b355c2cd15be9e7fa094 After futures established that soft support yesterday at 3945 we as expected continue our push and have found ourselves between supply at 3995 and 4054. 3995 supply now becomes support and 4055 supply remains resistance. AS I mentioned one scenario was that we would break between these levels and establish a new supply (Resistance) between 3995 and 4055. That would in my opinion signal a retest of 3945 and possibly even 3895. If we were to put in a red day tomorrow we would see 4040 become a new supply (resistance). That would make first support target 3995 -> 3945 and eventually 3895. We would look for a short opportunity until a new demand (support) was established. However, until a new supply is established our upside target remains 4055 and then 4095. Both of which are 100% within range for a FOMC day tomorrow. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/yledvrz7n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=74ff7524249c52cd9ca931dde7bd85f91951e87c From a price action stand point here we had a pretty impressive breakout and broke through our red resistance line. With that break through it leaves our last down trend resistance line (on a daily time frame) at 4114. That would be about a 1.83% move from 4040. As you can see we have established a pretty extreme two day support line in orange. That support remains at 4064… Now essentially what that means is unless futes opens over 4064 for some wild reason then this two day impressive 3.7%/ 146 pt move on futures breaks its trend… However true support of this v bottom lies at the blue support line which will sit at key pivot point of 3920. Realistically bulls are going to be targeting 4095 tomorrow and their goal will be to close us over 4095 tomorrow. If that happens there is a pretty strong case to be made for a run to 4150-4160. However, IF the bear can defend 4095 and realistically if they can close under 3988 minimally tomorrow (--1.3%) but ideally under 3920 (-3%) then my target would remain 3830-3888. Tomorrow as I said from a technical stand point has a major impact on where we are going to be headed the next few weeks. However, one caveat that I would like to say is that FOMC days historically have a way of “getting it wrong.” What I mean by this is that the algos have a way of rallying mostly and then giving it all back the very next day. Futures levels- Supply: 3995 -> 4055 -> 4160 Demand- 4095 -> 3945 Support- 3988 -> 3960 -> 3945 Resistance- 4040 -> 4055 -> 4085 -> 4095 VIX https://preview.redd.it/c2vjuxi8n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e01285170856baf60a01abc4dfc93f2a5a5ae97e Actually one thing that is pretty impressive and I didn’t realize until today is that out of the last 9 FOMCs 6 out of the last 9 have seen the VIX unwind (drop) the day before. Todays 11% drop on the VIX actually is the biggest drop pre-FOMC in the last year of FOMCs. https://preview.redd.it/2scedgv8n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7937fee5e618bf7af7c65f1430cdb9ade77833b I mentioned this breakout triangle here and that if we were to lose that then we very well could see this as a hint to massive upside on SPY… as of right now the VIX is hinting to some pretty impressive upside to come on SPY. DXY https://preview.redd.it/21d7h2d9n5pa1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b621ebdbc542598368343a1f71a0feccdd447c3 Now something that is actually interesting here is the Dollar and its trend. I mentioned yesterday that the break through of this breakout/down triangle actually signaled that we would see upside on SPY. And today we absolutely got that. Now again I don’t know if you can full TA the DXY… but then again people say you cant TA the VIX but here we are doing it well most days… BUT if we COULD TA the DXY then what I would say is that we just saw the bottom bounce of the dollar off previous support of 103. This would be a reversal doji candle and would signify we see a push up on the dollar tomorrow which in turn should bring SPY lower. The one caveat again here would be that FOMC can cause extremely unpredictable and crazy movements on the dollar and bonds. 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/nvyympr9n5pa1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=095564fb28d0f4eb6c937e033a3e25b51633850d Once again how well we can TA the 10YR is still to be determined… and the 10yr has not been moving as usual I would say lately… but the one thing I am seeing here is that we are reaching what would appear to be a bottom on the 10yr… the 10yr looks like it made a massive bounce off that 3.3% area yesterday and now is on a path back to the 3.7% to 3.9% area… IF that was the case then that SHOULD/ COULD bring SPY down with it… What I find most intriguing is that SPY has a daily abandoned baby reversal candle set up, the dollar has a morning start doji bullish reversal (potentially bearish for SPY) and the 10Yr appears to be vbottoming (potentially bearish for SPY) all at the same time… IF things play nicely this could be the ultimate signal of the temporary top on SPY and that we are indeed heading down to the 380s on SPY again. I would personally look for a red day tomorrow with a new supply (resistance) being established at 399 tomorrow on SPY and at 4040 on futures to full signal that the 380s/ 3800s is coming back around. Now of course this all 100% relies on FOMC and most importantly what JPOW has to say… DAILY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/uauar78an5pa1.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=465e8af40afb7fdc5fc32f5427b4c727c956be14 Not a bad day of trading… ended up with a decent small green day here once again. We spent almost the whole day in a pretty tight $2.5 range. Which when you consider the fact that the 10 day average range is currently $6.77 that is a very tight range. We realistically didn’t even see a big breakout on SPY until power hour and even that breakout never broke a $4 range. Without the once again massive pre market move we would have been left with a very tight range and no movement. Lets see what fireworks FOMC brings tomorrow. I for one have zero plans to trade FOMC but I will have a bag of popcorn ready to go… |
2023.03.21 21:48 twopadstacker Another reason why shorts are fucked
2023.03.21 21:48 themarjest Recommendations for a flashlight to help me on my nightly search for my lost cat
2023.03.21 21:47 DaddyDersch Pre- FOMC day… let the show begin! 3-21-23 SPY/ ES Futures, VIX, DXY and 10YR Yield Daily Market Analysis
![]() | Well the question of the day which we will get an answer to in 22 hours is… are we going to see 410/420 with a dovish JPOW or is JPOW about to send the markets crashing back to 370/380? submitted by DaddyDersch to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/9lucwyhym5pa1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=39fae2398e48f7d86a80f153ae80f10ff6e4d667 Not very surprising but we are expected to see a 25bps hike with an 86.4% chance priced in… Now do I really think the bps matters? Honestly I do not… But what does matter is the dot plot and how JPOW fields questions from the press about the financial system and bank runs. I even before the bank runs believed we were going to see a the dot plot show longer and more hikes than expected. And now with the bonds and market essentially pricing in 100bps of cuts by the end of the year I think they are going to get a big surprise… Not only that but JPOW is going to have to directly field questions about the banks and the true issues… Now of course jpow can just say “that’s not my place to speak on this” and just defer… however, markets gonna be listening to every single word he says. https://preview.redd.it/z84xapxym5pa1.png?width=369&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e8c418a077a5abe16e15f0f77f69f5ac576b8f2 Taking a look at the last 9 FOMCs (last year of data) we have an average of a 0.6% +/- open… which means SPY could open somewhere near 396.46 or 401.25. Interestingly enough from January to September every FOMC had a green open and pretty big green openings… the last three FOMCs have all been red openings (Granted smaller than previous green openings). Today we front ran FOMC in my opinion… I think we are going to give a lot of this back tomorrow personally. With an average close of +/- 1.72% our downside target would be around 392 or 405.7. SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/3qbb1kdzm5pa1.png?width=869&format=png&auto=webp&s=20bf6083f0e2493d286c5d127ec23a6a4d1be4c4 Right now we still remain between the demand (support) 385.87 and supply (resistance) at 405.17. We are still on the path to establish a new supply (resistance). We actually if we would have closed under 396 would have made a new supply today. At this point price action is fairly bullish and my target for now remains at 405.17. Which if you remember with the expected FOMC move upside of 405.7 that could actually hit tomorrow. However, IF we get a bearish FOMC tomorrow and close a red day then we will establish this 398.9 area as a new supply (resistance) and that would give us once again a downside target of 385.87. There is a lot riding on tomorrow and very well could determine the next month of movement. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/90bi97uzm5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=10ab5f4c1e7b38cd1c505e3894b9985656623521 There actually is quite a bit to talk about here on the daily chart price action wise… and most of it is very bullish. What we did (I changed colors some from last night) is broke out of the orange bear channel. With that breakout we now will target the red resistance from 2/14 and 3/6 tops which tomorrow will sit at 400.5. After that we have the final resistance of this down trend (daily wise) at 405.3 for tomorrow. That 405 area continues to come up and remains a pivotal point. IF we were to break out tomorrow and close over 405 then we absolutely could see an impressive run back to the 414-417 area. I do not think this rally would last personally… I would actually find anything over 410 to be a potential short opportunity… but that is absolutely an upside target. However, if the bears fight back tomorrow and jpow drops the hawk hammer on the markets then our support level for tomorrow is at 394.3. IF we were to lose that level then we would actually form a really nice abandoned baby pattern (actually any gap down and red a would do this too). This would be a great opportunity for a short back to 390.1 minimally. One interesting thing to note is that SPY hard rejected and closed under 399 today which is the daily 200ema and if you look back to January was a major pivot area. This is the bears last defense in my opinion. If bulls close over 399 tomorrow then my upside target remains 405.2. IF bears close under 396.1 tomorrow then my downside target remains 390.1. SPY LEVELS- Supply: 405.17 Demand: 385.87 Support- 397.2 -> 396.2 -> 393.7 -> 390.8 Resistance- 399 -> 401.6 -> 404.5 -> 405.2 FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/0l5n2ig0n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=098080347851da233cc3c455afa20ca53db74ad4 After futures established that soft support yesterday at 3945 we as expected continue our push and have found ourselves between supply at 3995 and 4054. 3995 supply now becomes support and 4055 supply remains resistance. AS I mentioned one scenario was that we would break between these levels and establish a new supply (Resistance) between 3995 and 4055. That would in my opinion signal a retest of 3945 and possibly even 3895. If we were to put in a red day tomorrow we would see 4040 become a new supply (resistance). That would make first support target 3995 -> 3945 and eventually 3895. We would look for a short opportunity until a new demand (support) was established. However, until a new supply is established our upside target remains 4055 and then 4095. Both of which are 100% within range for a FOMC day tomorrow. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/e19al6x0n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbd959056195cf4d1cbd617dca917ee49308a6f9 From a price action stand point here we had a pretty impressive breakout and broke through our red resistance line. With that break through it leaves our last down trend resistance line (on a daily time frame) at 4114. That would be about a 1.83% move from 4040. As you can see we have established a pretty extreme two day support line in orange. That support remains at 4064… Now essentially what that means is unless futes opens over 4064 for some wild reason then this two day impressive 3.7%/ 146 pt move on futures breaks its trend… However true support of this v bottom lies at the blue support line which will sit at key pivot point of 3920. Realistically bulls are going to be targeting 4095 tomorrow and their goal will be to close us over 4095 tomorrow. If that happens there is a pretty strong case to be made for a run to 4150-4160. However, IF the bear can defend 4095 and realistically if they can close under 3988 minimally tomorrow (--1.3%) but ideally under 3920 (-3%) then my target would remain 3830-3888. Tomorrow as I said from a technical stand point has a major impact on where we are going to be headed the next few weeks. However, one caveat that I would like to say is that FOMC days historically have a way of “getting it wrong.” What I mean by this is that the algos have a way of rallying mostly and then giving it all back the very next day. Futures levels- Supply: 3995 -> 4055 -> 4160 Demand- 4095 -> 3945 Support- 3988 -> 3960 -> 3945 Resistance- 4040 -> 4055 -> 4085 -> 4095 VIX https://preview.redd.it/mfvtfgd1n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e90cf2a77c6bbbb8035f9791d85b30de1b8fb38 Actually one thing that is pretty impressive and I didn’t realize until today is that out of the last 9 FOMCs 6 out of the last 9 have seen the VIX unwind (drop) the day before. Todays 11% drop on the VIX actually is the biggest drop pre-FOMC in the last year of FOMCs. https://preview.redd.it/x2h4r7s1n5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c44771f39872f6f2bcee253ad890a156294573a6 I mentioned this breakout triangle here and that if we were to lose that then we very well could see this as a hint to massive upside on SPY… as of right now the VIX is hinting to some pretty impressive upside to come on SPY. DXY https://preview.redd.it/r9bmn582n5pa1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=0531a53943bfd2916fa38a81feacf0d10d05caf1 Now something that is actually interesting here is the Dollar and its trend. I mentioned yesterday that the break through of this breakout/down triangle actually signaled that we would see upside on SPY. And today we absolutely got that. Now again I don’t know if you can full TA the DXY… but then again people say you cant TA the VIX but here we are doing it well most days… BUT if we COULD TA the DXY then what I would say is that we just saw the bottom bounce of the dollar off previous support of 103. This would be a reversal doji candle and would signify we see a push up on the dollar tomorrow which in turn should bring SPY lower. The one caveat again here would be that FOMC can cause extremely unpredictable and crazy movements on the dollar and bonds. 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/y7s7boq2n5pa1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1e1efefa8ba2f7e071a709baf1c2a54848343ef Once again how well we can TA the 10YR is still to be determined… and the 10yr has not been moving as usual I would say lately… but the one thing I am seeing here is that we are reaching what would appear to be a bottom on the 10yr… the 10yr looks like it made a massive bounce off that 3.3% area yesterday and now is on a path back to the 3.7% to 3.9% area… IF that was the case then that SHOULD/ COULD bring SPY down with it… What I find most intriguing is that SPY has a daily abandoned baby reversal candle set up, the dollar has a morning start doji bullish reversal (potentially bearish for SPY) and the 10Yr appears to be vbottoming (potentially bearish for SPY) all at the same time… IF things play nicely this could be the ultimate signal of the temporary top on SPY and that we are indeed heading down to the 380s on SPY again. I would personally look for a red day tomorrow with a new supply (resistance) being established at 399 tomorrow on SPY and at 4040 on futures to full signal that the 380s/ 3800s is coming back around. Now of course this all 100% relies on FOMC and most importantly what JPOW has to say… DAILY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/5ollsr43n5pa1.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=e31348aa71318aa05f7931e571c487474eedfe6a Not a bad day of trading… ended up with a decent small green day here once again. We spent almost the whole day in a pretty tight $2.5 range. Which when you consider the fact that the 10 day average range is currently $6.77 that is a very tight range. We realistically didn’t even see a big breakout on SPY until power hour and even that breakout never broke a $4 range. Without the once again massive pre market move we would have been left with a very tight range and no movement. Lets see what fireworks FOMC brings tomorrow. I for one have zero plans to trade FOMC but I will have a bag of popcorn ready to go… |
2023.03.21 21:47 Jonen8 Needing a new bike (first one in years) and want advice on whether I'm getting a quality bike/good deal.
2023.03.21 21:47 to_the_star2 What am my missing here about the shorts and their strategy
2023.03.21 21:46 frotzed [USA-GA] [H] Apple Watch Ultra; AppleCare+ until November 10, 2024 [W] PayPal
2023.03.21 21:46 DaddyDersch Pre- FOMC day… let the show begin! 3-21-23 SPY/ ES Futures, VIX, DXY and 10YR Yield Daily Market Analysis
![]() | Well the question of the day which we will get an answer to in 22 hours is… are we going to see 410/420 with a dovish JPOW or is JPOW about to send the markets crashing back to 370/380? submitted by DaddyDersch to Daytrading [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/a9sp7i6rm5pa1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5e381e24046cc34074484a8acd9d5574b7e2e9c Not very surprising but we are expected to see a 25bps hike with an 86.4% chance priced in… Now do I really think the bps matters? Honestly I do not… But what does matter is the dot plot and how JPOW fields questions from the press about the financial system and bank runs. I even before the bank runs believed we were going to see a the dot plot show longer and more hikes than expected. And now with the bonds and market essentially pricing in 100bps of cuts by the end of the year I think they are going to get a big surprise… Not only that but JPOW is going to have to directly field questions about the banks and the true issues… Now of course jpow can just say “that’s not my place to speak on this” and just defer… however, markets gonna be listening to every single word he says. https://preview.redd.it/ngeuwznrm5pa1.png?width=369&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d4bdc57048b352ae5d40fb268d2e92952299bbd Taking a look at the last 9 FOMCs (last year of data) we have an average of a 0.6% +/- open… which means SPY could open somewhere near 396.46 or 401.25. Interestingly enough from January to September every FOMC had a green open and pretty big green openings… the last three FOMCs have all been red openings (Granted smaller than previous green openings). Today we front ran FOMC in my opinion… I think we are going to give a lot of this back tomorrow personally. With an average close of +/- 1.72% our downside target would be around 392 or 405.7. SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/6hjn8o2sm5pa1.png?width=869&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d7a6ac686014fec112cf6d3b220dcf7281e1f6b Right now we still remain between the demand (support) 385.87 and supply (resistance) at 405.17. We are still on the path to establish a new supply (resistance). We actually if we would have closed under 396 would have made a new supply today. At this point price action is fairly bullish and my target for now remains at 405.17. Which if you remember with the expected FOMC move upside of 405.7 that could actually hit tomorrow. However, IF we get a bearish FOMC tomorrow and close a red day then we will establish this 398.9 area as a new supply (resistance) and that would give us once again a downside target of 385.87. There is a lot riding on tomorrow and very well could determine the next month of movement. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/pcwaz1ism5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=55b06e6eb913ffc76a7d33b857e091ff7f902294 There actually is quite a bit to talk about here on the daily chart price action wise… and most of it is very bullish. What we did (I changed colors some from last night) is broke out of the orange bear channel. With that breakout we now will target the red resistance from 2/14 and 3/6 tops which tomorrow will sit at 400.5. After that we have the final resistance of this down trend (daily wise) at 405.3 for tomorrow. That 405 area continues to come up and remains a pivotal point. IF we were to break out tomorrow and close over 405 then we absolutely could see an impressive run back to the 414-417 area. I do not think this rally would last personally… I would actually find anything over 410 to be a potential short opportunity… but that is absolutely an upside target. However, if the bears fight back tomorrow and jpow drops the hawk hammer on the markets then our support level for tomorrow is at 394.3. IF we were to lose that level then we would actually form a really nice abandoned baby pattern (actually any gap down and red a would do this too). This would be a great opportunity for a short back to 390.1 minimally. One interesting thing to note is that SPY hard rejected and closed under 399 today which is the daily 200ema and if you look back to January was a major pivot area. This is the bears last defense in my opinion. If bulls close over 399 tomorrow then my upside target remains 405.2. IF bears close under 396.1 tomorrow then my downside target remains 390.1. SPY LEVELS- Supply: 405.17 Demand: 385.87 Support- 397.2 -> 396.2 -> 393.7 -> 390.8 Resistance- 399 -> 401.6 -> 404.5 -> 405.2 FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/kmgbcozsm5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d62e27e3634a73796ae798a09528dc8459d35d1c After futures established that soft support yesterday at 3945 we as expected continue our push and have found ourselves between supply at 3995 and 4054. 3995 supply now becomes support and 4055 supply remains resistance. AS I mentioned one scenario was that we would break between these levels and establish a new supply (Resistance) between 3995 and 4055. That would in my opinion signal a retest of 3945 and possibly even 3895. If we were to put in a red day tomorrow we would see 4040 become a new supply (resistance). That would make first support target 3995 -> 3945 and eventually 3895. We would look for a short opportunity until a new demand (support) was established. However, until a new supply is established our upside target remains 4055 and then 4095. Both of which are 100% within range for a FOMC day tomorrow. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/xa5gphhtm5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5e61834d0d5465958734fef21a504b50d2c526d From a price action stand point here we had a pretty impressive breakout and broke through our red resistance line. With that break through it leaves our last down trend resistance line (on a daily time frame) at 4114. That would be about a 1.83% move from 4040. As you can see we have established a pretty extreme two day support line in orange. That support remains at 4064… Now essentially what that means is unless futes opens over 4064 for some wild reason then this two day impressive 3.7%/ 146 pt move on futures breaks its trend… However true support of this v bottom lies at the blue support line which will sit at key pivot point of 3920. Realistically bulls are going to be targeting 4095 tomorrow and their goal will be to close us over 4095 tomorrow. If that happens there is a pretty strong case to be made for a run to 4150-4160. However, IF the bear can defend 4095 and realistically if they can close under 3988 minimally tomorrow (--1.3%) but ideally under 3920 (-3%) then my target would remain 3830-3888. Tomorrow as I said from a technical stand point has a major impact on where we are going to be headed the next few weeks. However, one caveat that I would like to say is that FOMC days historically have a way of “getting it wrong.” What I mean by this is that the algos have a way of rallying mostly and then giving it all back the very next day. Futures levels- Supply: 3995 -> 4055 -> 4160 Demand- 4095 -> 3945 Support- 3988 -> 3960 -> 3945 Resistance- 4040 -> 4055 -> 4085 -> 4095 VIX https://preview.redd.it/hrevju1um5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=7dcde9b7e75d940122a880557c8d5062b6c088c0 Actually one thing that is pretty impressive and I didn’t realize until today is that out of the last 9 FOMCs 6 out of the last 9 have seen the VIX unwind (drop) the day before. Todays 11% drop on the VIX actually is the biggest drop pre-FOMC in the last year of FOMCs. https://preview.redd.it/r5dd54ium5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d851e384aa553a3a79251dc1943cf349154154d8 I mentioned this breakout triangle here and that if we were to lose that then we very well could see this as a hint to massive upside on SPY… as of right now the VIX is hinting to some pretty impressive upside to come on SPY. DXY https://preview.redd.it/vv6cxqxum5pa1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=836c0fd70c3e8ffe5580a1d50fb83f2c6964834d Now something that is actually interesting here is the Dollar and its trend. I mentioned yesterday that the break through of this breakout/down triangle actually signaled that we would see upside on SPY. And today we absolutely got that. Now again I don’t know if you can full TA the DXY… but then again people say you cant TA the VIX but here we are doing it well most days… BUT if we COULD TA the DXY then what I would say is that we just saw the bottom bounce of the dollar off previous support of 103. This would be a reversal doji candle and would signify we see a push up on the dollar tomorrow which in turn should bring SPY lower. The one caveat again here would be that FOMC can cause extremely unpredictable and crazy movements on the dollar and bonds. 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/czvo8qcvm5pa1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=67225381833f4529d5c6d3c3b7b8524e812c4328 Once again how well we can TA the 10YR is still to be determined… and the 10yr has not been moving as usual I would say lately… but the one thing I am seeing here is that we are reaching what would appear to be a bottom on the 10yr… the 10yr looks like it made a massive bounce off that 3.3% area yesterday and now is on a path back to the 3.7% to 3.9% area… IF that was the case then that SHOULD/ COULD bring SPY down with it… What I find most intriguing is that SPY has a daily abandoned baby reversal candle set up, the dollar has a morning start doji bullish reversal (potentially bearish for SPY) and the 10Yr appears to be vbottoming (potentially bearish for SPY) all at the same time… IF things play nicely this could be the ultimate signal of the temporary top on SPY and that we are indeed heading down to the 380s on SPY again. I would personally look for a red day tomorrow with a new supply (resistance) being established at 399 tomorrow on SPY and at 4040 on futures to full signal that the 380s/ 3800s is coming back around. Now of course this all 100% relies on FOMC and most importantly what JPOW has to say… DAILY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/6p1858tvm5pa1.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b465904631383cb2a44115401858b8bf44d23e2 Not a bad day of trading… ended up with a decent small green day here once again. We spent almost the whole day in a pretty tight $2.5 range. Which when you consider the fact that the 10 day average range is currently $6.77 that is a very tight range. We realistically didn’t even see a big breakout on SPY until power hour and even that breakout never broke a $4 range. Without the once again massive pre market move we would have been left with a very tight range and no movement. Lets see what fireworks FOMC brings tomorrow. I for one have zero plans to trade FOMC but I will have a bag of popcorn ready to go… |
2023.03.21 21:45 DaddyDersch Pre- FOMC day… let the show begin! 3-21-23 SPY/ ES Futures, VIX, DXY and 10YR Yield Daily Market Analysis
![]() | Well the question of the day which we will get an answer to in 22 hours is… are we going to see 410/420 with a dovish JPOW or is JPOW about to send the markets crashing back to 370/380? submitted by DaddyDersch to u/DaddyDersch [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/8h1susgkm5pa1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=1840a5698777870fe6826d0129f28b2653ca2c1a Not very surprising but we are expected to see a 25bps hike with an 86.4% chance priced in… Now do I really think the bps matters? Honestly I do not… But what does matter is the dot plot and how JPOW fields questions from the press about the financial system and bank runs. I even before the bank runs believed we were going to see a the dot plot show longer and more hikes than expected. And now with the bonds and market essentially pricing in 100bps of cuts by the end of the year I think they are going to get a big surprise… Not only that but JPOW is going to have to directly field questions about the banks and the true issues… Now of course jpow can just say “that’s not my place to speak on this” and just defer… however, markets gonna be listening to every single word he says. https://preview.redd.it/ai6l6bxkm5pa1.png?width=369&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c668ba9578300632c700dca8d10cbf17363b881 Taking a look at the last 9 FOMCs (last year of data) we have an average of a 0.6% +/- open… which means SPY could open somewhere near 396.46 or 401.25. Interestingly enough from January to September every FOMC had a green open and pretty big green openings… the last three FOMCs have all been red openings (Granted smaller than previous green openings). Today we front ran FOMC in my opinion… I think we are going to give a lot of this back tomorrow personally. With an average close of +/- 1.72% our downside target would be around 392 or 405.7. SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/fz2elbdlm5pa1.png?width=869&format=png&auto=webp&s=faafdc0012e9b99c1d437d8adc87b87fbb5e3d4c Right now we still remain between the demand (support) 385.87 and supply (resistance) at 405.17. We are still on the path to establish a new supply (resistance). We actually if we would have closed under 396 would have made a new supply today. At this point price action is fairly bullish and my target for now remains at 405.17. Which if you remember with the expected FOMC move upside of 405.7 that could actually hit tomorrow. However, IF we get a bearish FOMC tomorrow and close a red day then we will establish this 398.9 area as a new supply (resistance) and that would give us once again a downside target of 385.87. There is a lot riding on tomorrow and very well could determine the next month of movement. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/mbnt5frlm5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=0177e95eb770113e57b46124afc38bde6ef296db There actually is quite a bit to talk about here on the daily chart price action wise… and most of it is very bullish. What we did (I changed colors some from last night) is broke out of the orange bear channel. With that breakout we now will target the red resistance from 2/14 and 3/6 tops which tomorrow will sit at 400.5. After that we have the final resistance of this down trend (daily wise) at 405.3 for tomorrow. That 405 area continues to come up and remains a pivotal point. IF we were to break out tomorrow and close over 405 then we absolutely could see an impressive run back to the 414-417 area. I do not think this rally would last personally… I would actually find anything over 410 to be a potential short opportunity… but that is absolutely an upside target. However, if the bears fight back tomorrow and jpow drops the hawk hammer on the markets then our support level for tomorrow is at 394.3. IF we were to lose that level then we would actually form a really nice abandoned baby pattern (actually any gap down and red a would do this too). This would be a great opportunity for a short back to 390.1 minimally. One interesting thing to note is that SPY hard rejected and closed under 399 today which is the daily 200ema and if you look back to January was a major pivot area. This is the bears last defense in my opinion. If bulls close over 399 tomorrow then my upside target remains 405.2. IF bears close under 396.1 tomorrow then my downside target remains 390.1. SPY LEVELS- Supply: 405.17 Demand: 385.87 Support- 397.2 -> 396.2 -> 393.7 -> 390.8 Resistance- 399 -> 401.6 -> 404.5 -> 405.2 FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/zyjt2y8mm5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=f013f93520af038f693facd78b61ce60030f4b38 After futures established that soft support yesterday at 3945 we as expected continue our push and have found ourselves between supply at 3995 and 4054. 3995 supply now becomes support and 4055 supply remains resistance. AS I mentioned one scenario was that we would break between these levels and establish a new supply (Resistance) between 3995 and 4055. That would in my opinion signal a retest of 3945 and possibly even 3895. If we were to put in a red day tomorrow we would see 4040 become a new supply (resistance). That would make first support target 3995 -> 3945 and eventually 3895. We would look for a short opportunity until a new demand (support) was established. However, until a new supply is established our upside target remains 4055 and then 4095. Both of which are 100% within range for a FOMC day tomorrow. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/8ow411qmm5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d063676a2254dc207cbfd61d311f107366a8f7c9 From a price action stand point here we had a pretty impressive breakout and broke through our red resistance line. With that break through it leaves our last down trend resistance line (on a daily time frame) at 4114. That would be about a 1.83% move from 4040. As you can see we have established a pretty extreme two day support line in orange. That support remains at 4064… Now essentially what that means is unless futes opens over 4064 for some wild reason then this two day impressive 3.7%/ 146 pt move on futures breaks its trend… However true support of this v bottom lies at the blue support line which will sit at key pivot point of 3920. Realistically bulls are going to be targeting 4095 tomorrow and their goal will be to close us over 4095 tomorrow. If that happens there is a pretty strong case to be made for a run to 4150-4160. However, IF the bear can defend 4095 and realistically if they can close under 3988 minimally tomorrow (--1.3%) but ideally under 3920 (-3%) then my target would remain 3830-3888. Tomorrow as I said from a technical stand point has a major impact on where we are going to be headed the next few weeks. However, one caveat that I would like to say is that FOMC days historically have a way of “getting it wrong.” What I mean by this is that the algos have a way of rallying mostly and then giving it all back the very next day. Futures levels- Supply: 3995 -> 4055 -> 4160 Demand- 4095 -> 3945 Support- 3988 -> 3960 -> 3945 Resistance- 4040 -> 4055 -> 4085 -> 4095 VIX https://preview.redd.it/5smaok8nm5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf281f8b301f9f4a33a2b2e3a82319a0eada098a Actually one thing that is pretty impressive and I didn’t realize until today is that out of the last 9 FOMCs 6 out of the last 9 have seen the VIX unwind (drop) the day before. Todays 11% drop on the VIX actually is the biggest drop pre-FOMC in the last year of FOMCs. https://preview.redd.it/2v1rd7knm5pa1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c18c64b8588d51862e0611c97f9b730373c9aa97 I mentioned this breakout triangle here and that if we were to lose that then we very well could see this as a hint to massive upside on SPY… as of right now the VIX is hinting to some pretty impressive upside to come on SPY. DXY https://preview.redd.it/iw5j3t1om5pa1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=182c9501e0154bde9823ccaddad10a3966424eb0 Now something that is actually interesting here is the Dollar and its trend. I mentioned yesterday that the break through of this breakout/down triangle actually signaled that we would see upside on SPY. And today we absolutely got that. Now again I don’t know if you can full TA the DXY… but then again people say you cant TA the VIX but here we are doing it well most days… BUT if we COULD TA the DXY then what I would say is that we just saw the bottom bounce of the dollar off previous support of 103. This would be a reversal doji candle and would signify we see a push up on the dollar tomorrow which in turn should bring SPY lower. The one caveat again here would be that FOMC can cause extremely unpredictable and crazy movements on the dollar and bonds. 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/iacbyvgom5pa1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=dcc80a1d25aa280070c77260959ac9098362b583 Once again how well we can TA the 10YR is still to be determined… and the 10yr has not been moving as usual I would say lately… but the one thing I am seeing here is that we are reaching what would appear to be a bottom on the 10yr… the 10yr looks like it made a massive bounce off that 3.3% area yesterday and now is on a path back to the 3.7% to 3.9% area… IF that was the case then that SHOULD/ COULD bring SPY down with it… What I find most intriguing is that SPY has a daily abandoned baby reversal candle set up, the dollar has a morning start doji bullish reversal (potentially bearish for SPY) and the 10Yr appears to be vbottoming (potentially bearish for SPY) all at the same time… IF things play nicely this could be the ultimate signal of the temporary top on SPY and that we are indeed heading down to the 380s on SPY again. I would personally look for a red day tomorrow with a new supply (resistance) being established at 399 tomorrow on SPY and at 4040 on futures to full signal that the 380s/ 3800s is coming back around. Now of course this all 100% relies on FOMC and most importantly what JPOW has to say… DAILY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/fxczefwom5pa1.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bb82107624abc422d12c3ee7472002328249f67 Not a bad day of trading… ended up with a decent small green day here once again. We spent almost the whole day in a pretty tight $2.5 range. Which when you consider the fact that the 10 day average range is currently $6.77 that is a very tight range. We realistically didn’t even see a big breakout on SPY until power hour and even that breakout never broke a $4 range. Without the once again massive pre market move we would have been left with a very tight range and no movement. Lets see what fireworks FOMC brings tomorrow. I for one have zero plans to trade FOMC but I will have a bag of popcorn ready to go… |
2023.03.21 21:43 alpha_bionics Stock News - Today, Angel City FC, based in Los Angeles, is valued at $100 million, according to Sportico. Athletes, celebrities and investors all want a piece of the action.
2023.03.21 21:41 ThrowRA9283627 My (26NB) partner (28NB) communicates toxically and then gaslights me when my feelings are hurt bc of it
2023.03.21 21:40 HitchyyyUK 5 days post vasectomy
2023.03.21 21:39 Sawbones90 Interesting titbit from local news
2023.03.21 21:37 Elegant-Air8604 Career Path: CompTIA Sec+ or Data Analyst, or something I'd actually like?
2023.03.21 21:34 Johanna-Draconis Ep102 - ... and bad people do good things - The Deconstruction Of C-PTSD - Johanna Draconis
![]() | submitted by Johanna-Draconis to DraconisCPTSDarchive [link] [comments] https://reddit.com/link/11xtk8c/video/uq334kyyj5pa1/player https://www.buzzsprout.com/371360/8966561 Transcript: https://www.johannadraconis.com/episode-101-120 Intro [0:00]Hello my dears! My name is Johanna, and I welcome you to the Johanna Draconis - The Deconstruction Of C-PTSD podcast.In this episode we will talk about bad people doing good things, which I know is a complicated and loaded topic on its own, but under our circumstances it turns into a complete mine field. And also I am not talking about Stockholm syndrome - maybe another time. I am talking about the person who causes so much suffering doing good things. Sometimes even great things. It is a taboo we need to talk about, as we have to properly sort it out before we can move on - as conflicting as it can be. So let us talk about it. Prelude [0:50]I found this topic really well summarized with the yin and yang image. As in there isn’t something good without something bad and there isn’t something bad without something good. That has always been the truth of life as far as I witnessed it.I mean we can use the most vile people in history and they will have good aspects about them and will have done good things. Maybe not much, but it is definitely there. To my knowledge there is no 100% evil person. That is hard enough to swallow when it is just a very nasty coworker, but it even goes so far that there might be a genuine good moment or a humane moment with those that are torturing you and make you go through unspeakable things. Not the ones they use for of the procedure. Genuine ones. Which makes what happens otherwise so much worse and definitely makes accepting what happened to you so much harder. No matter what it was that happened to you. It just messes with your head. Which is why it is so important that we talk about it - to break the silence and the taboo and because we need to to heal and leave it all behind us. So let us take a closer look with first talking about bad people doing good things in general and then good moments with someone bad. Bad people doing good things in general [2:26]The first point - about bad people doing good things in general - which is more or less a completely normal and general thing. There are several reason why dealing with bad people doing good things is problematic.One the public opinion - as it can be used as an excuse to dismiss the claims and the victims. Once in claiming a person doing good couldn’t be doing what is claimed or that the good things the person did somehow negates the negatives ones. But it doesn’t only affect outside opinions - many people struggle to attribute their abuse when their abuser does also a lot of good things. There is doubt, self gas lightning and questioning your own memory. Which is understandable, but unnecessary. Even if he did good things, even if it is was directly for you - that makes the abuse suffered not less valid. Abuse isn’t a math problem - good things don’t take the bad things away. Good moments with bad people (need for connection) [3:36]To the second point - the genuine good moments with your abuser - it is crucial to understand that we are social beings with a need for connection. So especially if you spend a long time - and especially if it is isolated - with your abuser - it is basically bound to happen.One of the biggest struggle people have who suffered extreme abuse is: How could another person - another human - do this to me? Having such a connecting moment makes everything so much worse. That moment doesn’t need to be long or intense. Just a moment of familiarity or humanity shown by the abuser is enough. Shortly afterwards everything goes back to normal. You might even had several of those moments - and/or long ones. They change everything and nothing at the same time. But how can you admit to those moments? Where you felt for or with them? Where there was a connection? It makes separating so much harder. While that is the case - it is key to accept that these moments happened and not bury them. While they don’t change anything about the abuse you suffered - if we ignore them we are just planting problems to keep haunting us. And we need to deal with it to move on. There are a lot of emotions connected to this - especially shame. Survival is never pretty. Most of the things one does to survive is best never said out loud. Even things you do to survive that only affect you. Its embarrassing and dehumanizing. It is completely normal to feel shame. But it is also important to forgive yourself. It might take a while… maybe a long while - as this is a very hard pill to swallow. The important thing is to not just bury it. In some situations you don’t really have a choice. What else could you have done? Realistically? With your knowledge at the time? With the options that you had? With the needs you had? Take your time… this won’t be an easy or fast solution… and a hard and rough journey. So take your time and go at your own pace. Outro [6:29]That was it for todays episode, I hope you found it helpful. Hope you are safe and well. And as always, if you have any questions or feedback and the like, please let me know at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).More information and transcript you can find as usually under johannadraconis.com/podcast/, information regarding therapy you can find under johannadraconis.com/therapy/ and links are in the description. I hope to see you next time. Watch yourselves and have a wonderful time. |
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